Thursday, February 16, 2012

Slightly More Than Humbling

On Tuesday, a friend of mine asked me why, with Arsenal making a surprising move back into the top four, I hadn't bothered to update my blog to celebrate the momentous occasion. The straightforward, factual answer is that I didn't watch the match. I was down in Brooklyn over the past weekend and didn't get a chance to find a way to tune in. Then there was the annoying problem of how Arsenal vs Sunderland wasn't being shown on any television channel that we receive through our cable package, so I couldn't even DVR the game and watch it a later time, like I often will when I'm not at home to catch when everything goes live. And as I've said before on this blog, I don't feel comfortable making grandiose statements about Arsenal's quality (or lack thereof) when I don't get to experience their play personally. So, this blog was not updated after Theirry Henry saved three points in a (reportedly) boring match and Chelsea made a mess of their momentary advantage because I wasn't around to celebrate.

After Wednesday's game against AC Milan however, it seems like the fates might have conspired to make sure I didn't look like too much of an ass for relishing the victory. I think I know myself well enough to say that my tone would have fallen short of triumphant, but the Champions League debacle would have made anything remotely positive I said sound misguided at the very least and downright foolish as we near the other end of the spectrum. Anyone who watched the match live knows what I'm talking about. Arsenal was embarrassed. Plain and simple. Anyone who thought that Arsenal could walk into Milan and earn a draw, or perhaps even steal a victory, now knows exactly how pie-in-the-sky that kind of thinking truly was. It would be one thing if Arsenal was handled but only gave up a goal or two. That can happen occasionally when an opposing team just clicks on a given day, but it's salvageable. Return to London, put in a good performance, and who knows what might happen? But this? This wasn't just being thrashed out of the Champions League (barring a miraculous turnaround at the Emirates come March 6th). This was a clinical, surgical removal of hope, or a enthusiastic bludgeoning into submission, depending on your outlook on the game as well as the character of Arsenal. This was a sobering view of just exactly what Gunners fans can hope for this season.

The worst kept secret in the Premiership is that this Arsenal team just isn't that good. Now, there are reasons for that. It is tough to be consistent on defense when there are now eight different Arsenal fullbacks that have missed time due to injury. There is the absence of Jack Wilshere, a player that could markedly improve the Gunners' midfield play and help to control games. But what else is there at this point? What other excuses can there be? The reality is that the talent level is not high enough. Robin Van Persie is the only world class player on the team, compared to squads like Manchester City who boast such talents in every area of the field. The wing play has been woefully inconsistent when it should be the driving force of the attack, while the center of midfield has been underwhelming if we want to be nice about it. The return of Wilshere would certainly help and the evolution of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will shore up the quality of attacking play, but look at the straws we're grasping at. The saviors of Arsenal are two players that wouldn't be legal to drink in the US and there is no guarantee that they will come through and fix all ills. The team needs serious fixes during the offseason and they may have an even more serious gap to fill if Van Persie decides that he needs to jump ship to a team that can win trophies. Crisis is an overblown word for a team that will still finish in the top half of the table and may hold onto fourth place to make their way back into Champions League play next year, but this is a dominant power that is in serious decline and there are no easy solutions in sight. This team could be better and this team could be more than they have been, but not much better and not much more unless there is a seriously influx of talent. If you weren't sure of that before, I kindly invite you to watch the tape of Wednesday game to learn the sobering lesson that AC Milan already taught the Arsenal players.


Game Notes

-Arsene Wenger is a master of developing young talent while I am an amateur writer with a laptop and some opinions. Noted. But one still has to question how he has handled Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain this year. First "The Ox" was left off the bench for entirely too long as he supposedly got used to the level of play in the top flight. Then once he proved himself beyond what should be necessary, Wenger treated him as a player still on trial rather than someone who has earned the right to play 90 minutes every match. Of course Wenger may know things that I may not. Of course there is something to be said about the wisdom in starting an 18 year-old on the road in the San Siro for one of the biggest games of the year. But aside from Van Persie, Chamberlain is the only Arsenal player who has truly strikes fear in the hearts of opponents. It does not make sense any longer to leave him on the bench given all he can contribute to the team.

-The eternal question of "what do we do with the back line" now takes on extra importance for Arsenal. Assuming that both Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny will miss and least some game time over the next month (or, god help us, more), what on earth do the Gunners do with their fullbacks? Bacary Sagna is a starter of course, and Thomas Vermaelen will have to return to his natural position as a central defender, but who acts as his partner? Who starts on the left, or right if Sanga is to play out of position? Johan Djourou has been so bad this year that he was pulled at halftime for an 18 year-old making his first appearance in the Premier League, while Sebastien Squillaci is, well, Sebastien Squillaci. My gut says that Sagna switches to the left so that Francis Coquelin can play on the right, while Djourou does indeed get the start in the center. The problem is that even if I'm right, Arsenal looks to have it all wrong.

-I made the point several times during the week that though Arsenal was beaten badly by AC Milan, they were also incredibly unlucky. Kevin Prince-Boateng's goal was a thing of absolute beauty, Zlatan Ibrohimovic looked to be offside when he received the ball on the second goal, Robinho's goal was perfectly placed as well as perfectly timed (right before Alex Song's foot arrived on the scene) after the defender in front of him fell down, and the fourth goal was a penalty. Now, Milan might have gotten four other goals from different plays, but it is a little difficult to not shake your head as an Arsenal fan. Not in disbelief, but ruefully as if to say "of course, what else is new?" In a year where everything seems to be going wrong, it is becoming the destiny of Arsenal to suffer yet another blow at the hands of fate. But still. Fourth place with big matches looming. Things could always be worse. Unfortunately, we seem to marching inexorably in that direction. As Always, Go Gunners.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Trends or Outliers?

There is a tendency in sports to judge a team primarily by how well they played their last game. Nowhere is this more true than in football (by which I mean the American version, sorry purists) due to the weekly games, relatively short schedule, and endless talking head punditry about every facet of every game. Teams who were 8-0 suddenly become riddled with holes and doubts when they lose their first game. Teams who were 0-8 become "dangerous" and "a tough out" once they win that first game. And teams anywhere in between jump from world beaters to also-rans depending on the performance they put on last Sunday. Now there is some truth to this. Some. If a otherwise poor team played well against a strong competitor (see: Kansas City defeating Green Bay this past season) then it is worth taking a moment to reevaluate matters and try to find trends. Did they start playing better recently? Have they been dominating in one particular area and that strength happened to match up well with their opponent? Did their opponent simply not show up to play, giving the team you're analyzing a relatively cheap win? These are steps a logical person would go through, particularly after seeing a shocking result. The important thing is to not get carried away by what you just saw and instead try to consider it as part of the whole, one aspect of a story that has been building since the beginning of the season. In that context, the 7-1 win by Arsenal over Blackburn should be seen as a success, certainly, but not necessarily a harbinger of things to come.

Though it should be no surprise with a score like 7-1, there were a lot of positives for Arsenal in this match. It's not that hard to pick out what was good and bad (goals good! giving up goals bad!), but what is more indeterminate is whether or not each occurrence might continue into the future as a solid trend. Let's look at a few examples:

1. Scoring Seven Goals

Obviously the Gunners won't be scoring seven goals a game from here on out, but it's unlikely that even a small increase in production will continue into the future. First, we must keep in mind that four of these seven goals were scored while Blackburn was down to ten men. Three goals scored in even play is still quality, but it's not something that normally happens. In Arsenal's previous ten games in all competition, they scored more than two goals once: three versus Aston Villa in an FA Cup match, and two of them were off of penalties. All season, Arsenal has scored more than two goals only six other times: vs Wigan, West Bromwich Albion, Chelsea, Stoke, Bolton, and Blackburn. Three of those teams are in the relegation zone currently (Wigan, Bolton, Blackburn) and two are in the bottom half of the Premier League table (West Brom and Stoke). Arsenal does not routinely light up the scoreboard and when they do, it is usually against bad teams. This is compounded by the fact that no one besides Robin Van Persie seems able to consistently score (save Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, but the sample size is very small). Scoring wouldn't be such an issue, however...

2. Only One Goal Conceded

Blackburn did only score one goal during this match, and it was from a piece of brilliance off a set play by Morten Pedersen. However, it was another foolish foul (this time by Laurent Koscielny) that set up the free kick and this is a habit that Arsenal can't seem to shake over the season. Furthermore, Blackburn was down to ten men for just over half of this match, so only scoring once isn't that surprising. The problem lies in the fact that Arsenal are currently tied for 9th in Goals Against in the Premiership, a highly problematic number when the Gunners' scoring hasn't been consistent. Arsenal plays plenty of 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 type of matches, but the goals they give up are often crippling or foolish, and the Blackburn goal in this match was indicative of that.

3. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain's Performance

Here is a positive trend that seems like it might actually have some legs. In every game he's played this year (save perhaps the Bolton match), Chamberlain has been a force on the field. His pace has been dynamic, he's been an obvious playmaker, and he seems to have the support of the veterans, including his captain Van Persie (the Dutchman's reaction to Chamberlain being subbed off against Manchester United can be displayed as evidence to this point). More than that though, he fights when not everyone else is fighting and he runs hard while he's out there. In this way he reminds me a lot of Jack Wilshere during the drubbing Arsenal took at Barcelona in the Champions League last year. Never say die, continue to fight, keep running and working. Arsenal needs players like that as they have too often given up on games, or at least not shown that grit required to gut out tough wins. I hate to say it, but Arsenal doesn't come back from 3-0 down in the second half against Chelsea. Manchester United did, and it's why they're such a legendary team. If Chamberlain can help change the attitude around, he will be worth even more than he already is.

Arsenal's big breakout win against Blackburn was nice, but let's be honest... it's Blackburn. Not just Blackburn, but Blackburn Playing Down A Man For An Entire Half. Because of that, it's hard to see Arsenal carrying these kinds of results forward. However, if the players have any character at all then it should act as a confidence booster for a team that needed one after their dismal January performances. Even if they don't win all of their games by six goals from here on out, something like this might give them the belief they need to gut out the one goal games. That alone would be worth the momentary hype.


Game Notes

-Robin Van Persie. Enough has been said already, but let me add a small addendum. This game showed why he's the most in form striker in England right now because it's not just about the clinical finishing when he has the ball. In this game, Van Persie showed how intelligent his placement is, how well he gets to spots in front of goal where he is available to receive passes. Early in this year, I said that he didn't have that striker's mentality because he doesn't get goals exactly like the three he got in this match. Either I was jaded from his injury prone seasons of the past, or I was just flat out wrong. I'm happy to admit fault in either case as he is the complete package as a scorer. Now someone else just needs to step up to take some of the pressure off.

-It's hard to talk tactics too much from this match because Blackburn was being run ragged after already being down 3-1 before they had Gael Givet sent off with a straight red, but perhaps we can take away some things. Namely the wing play that appears to be slowly returning to Arsenal's game. Bacary Sagna got a day off as he's still recently back from injury, but out of position Francis Coquelin is starting to play well down the right flank and his deft through ball to Theo Walcott helped set up the Gunners' first goal. Let's be honest: Arsenal should always be dangerous on the flanks with the likes of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gervinho, and Walcott at their disposal. But good wing play by the fullbacks makes the speedy wingers that much more dangerous because defenders can't key on just the burners. If this improvement keeps up, the Arsenal attack will surely benefit.

-Aaron Ramsey was given the game off as well and I'm beginning to wonder if that might become more routine. I am usually loathe to credit Tomas Rosicky with anything except picking up foolish yellow cards when he comes in as an ineffectual substitute, but he really has played well recently as the link-up between Mikel Arteta and the strikers. This is the role that Rosicky has played in the past so it's puzzling why things are clicking for him now, but his passing has been superb and he's actually looked dangerous pressing forward. I like Ramsey and because I hold him to a higher standard I've been critical of him this year, but that criticism has been deserved. He's not creating chances for other players and he's been very poor in front of goal himself. With Rosicky playing well, Arsene Wenger may decide to finally remove the "automatic inclusion" tag from Ramsey. Which, unfortunately, is probably not a bad idea. As Always, Go Gunners.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

The Cycle of Frustration

Earlier in the year, I wrote a post discussing the commitment one has for their teams and how in order for a fan to be truly disappointed or heartbroken, they have to wholeheartedly believe that their team has a chance to win it all. I mentioned at several points this year how I didn't believe in Arsenal enough to commit to them in that way and by now, the window for such trust has surely passed, for this season, at least. I still believe this assessment of the fan condition to be true, but I believe I ignored another key component to the fan experience, one that does not require the opening of the heart but rather the foolish, masochistic desire to keep watching a team that you are all but convinced can't be better than they are showing, but maybe, hopefully, at some point, really will be. This is the Cycle of Inconsistency and though it will never depress you as much as the loss of the team you fell head-over-heels for, it will madden you in ways you never thought possible.

We've all been there. Your team looks great on paper before the year starts. You begin to get your hopes up because this really could be your year. It all has to come together, of course, but a title honestly could be in the future. The season starts, and things are going ok. Not everyone seems to be firing on all cylinders, but that's all right, these things happen. Players need to get used to communicating with each other, coaches need to adjust and see what works; the engine needs to be more finely tuned. But then that imaginary date goes by in your mind, the date by which all of these things should have been worked out, and the mistrust starts to slowly creep in. Are we really as talented as we thought? Shouldn't Player X have shown more than he has? Why do we not seem to know what to do with the ball still? But these thoughts are brushed aside, at least out of the realm of certainty. Things will get better, they have to. There's So Much Potential Here. It'll come around.

This is the point when all is lost for you as a fan. You've already talked yourself into your team and try as you might, you can't get away from it. I know, I've been there before and in all kinds of varieties. There is the aforementioned "Preseason Expectations," where your team just has to be good because my god look at all that talent. There's the "Early Season Performance," where your team plays better than you thought they would early in the year and you start to get a little excited about what they might do. And then there's the always popular, always devastating "Is My Team Good Enough" season, where you aren't convinced that your players are a bunch of world beaters, but there's still something there (a superstar player, really great chemistry, electric plays) that keeps you think there's the possibility of more. All of these situations lead fans into the Cycle of Frustration, where the team is maddeningly inconsistent and refuses to let you go because the highs are too sweet and the lows are too deeply personal to ever shrug off and move on. And it stays that way for the rest of the season.

Most fans never give up watching their team, just kind of give up on expecting anything. You can only be a passionate Cleveland Browns fan for about six weeks before you go back to just being a fan. The same is true of plenty of teams in plenty of sports, even routinely good franchises who happen to suffer through a down year here and there. Fans don't disown their team or stop rooting for them, they just let other things occupy their lives and don't put any true emotion into the season. And that's not something that should be criticized either. Let's face it: if you're putting your whole self into every game during a 65-97 baseball season, you're asking for an aneurysm or a restraining order. Some seasons it's easier to put fandom on the back burner, following along with your team but never really committing to it.

But then there are some seasons when you just can't quit your team, no matter what they do. You desperately hope that there is something there when quite often there is not. Or at least not enough of that special something to justify the emotion that you're putting into each game. This doesn't lead to the disappointment or broken heart feelings like you might experience if you truly thought your team was good enough to win the championship. Instead it's like this masochist itch that you can't help but scratch. A long shot bet that you can't help but get your hopes up for even though you know your horse will pull up lame in the end. It's frustrating more than anything else. Anger would be giving it too much credit as that level of emotion doesn't really exist here. It's mechanical and dutiful like the thank you cards you were forced to write as a kid, occasionally throwing down the pencil because dammit your hand hurts and you shouldn't have to be doing this. But you do it anyway.

I, like every fan who is put in this situation, feels like my teams always do this. I can't look at the New York Giants, UConn Huskies, and Minnesota Twins without thinking of all the times they've built me up to knock me down. That 12-4 Giants team in 2008 that backed into the playoffs and then got bounced in the first round. The 2011 Twins team who followed up their 2010 Central Division title with the second worst record in the majors despite having basically the same team. This year's UConn Huskies who have all the talent in the world the year after winning the national championship and now can't even score more than 50 points in a game. And these are just the recent examples. All of these teams seem to tempt me into caring for them, then decide amongst themselves that it's time to bring hope crashing down. But ability is still there, so we follow along hoping that it turns itself around.

And that's the thing. Sometimes it does. I openly rooted for this year's Giants team to finish 6-10 so that Tom Coughlin, Kevin Gilbride, Perry Fewell, and some particularly lazy towel boys would all be fired and we could finally have the house cleaning we so desperately needed. Instead, the kindling finally caught and my team is inexplicably in the Super Bowl, roughly a month and a half after looking like a really determined Appalachian State team could run them out of the building. This is what can happen. This is why we do care, even when we know we're not supposed to, even when we know we're must more likely to have our friends say "I told you so" rather than being able to say the same to them. I don't know if they'll ever come through for me the way my other teams have, but I guess I can't say I'm surprised that Arsenal puts me in this same damn mood week in and week out.

PS. I'm well aware that this the "White People Problems" of the sports world, how fans of generally competent teams love to bemoan the trials and tribulations that they're going through. A Cleveland fan would be well within his or her rights to slap me across the face after reading this.


Game Notes

-I think I'll at least start with something good. Theo Walcott, awful decision on the breakaway aside, played a very strong game. He was pacey at the right times, picked out players well, and took full advantage of all of the space that Bolton was giving him (when he wasn't in a one-on-one in front of goal at least). Is it that surprising that his best game of the last month comes on the same day Bacary Sagna returns to the starting lineup? Sagna's attacking presence down the flank opens up much more space for Walcott, allowing him to be the danger he can be. I fully expect this going forward, and it's yet another reason I love having Sagna back and healthy.

-Inevitably, however, we come to the bad. Arsenal cannot score. I can counted six clear goal scoring opportunities at least, none of which were converted. Some of this was bad luck of course. Robin Van Persie's brilliant, sublime chip in the 80th minute was cruelly denied by the crossbar, keeping him from notching another Top Ten Goals of the Year. But Arsenal's Lord and Savior missed an open shot himself from the top of the box, though Aaron Ramsey and Walcott were worse offenders by far with their comical attempts in front of goal when all that was needed was composure and a touch to the corner. These are the kinds of games that Arsenal cannot afford to lose, despite how much Chelsea is trying to give 4th place to anyone who will take it. A win in this match would have kept the Gunners in 5th place only 3 points out of 4th. Instead, they drop to 7th and now have to make up 5 points while also holding off further competition. What a missed opportunity.

-This was the first game where I think Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain's youth showed a bit. I don't think he had a particularly bad game, as he was still menacing with his pace and showed some good vision. But he did duff a few too many passes and at times looked like he was trying to press. It's almost as if he hears all the fans talking about how great he is for the team and is trying to do too much (which very well could be the case). I'm not worried about him and I still think he'll be great in the future, but it was a bit surprising to see him play uncharacteristically sloppily. Perhaps we should thank our lucky stars that that's the standard he's set for himself. As Always, Go Gunners.

Choosing Your Battles

This week has been a busy one for English soccer as the FA Cup matches were held over the weekend and the Premier League schedule continuing on Tuesday and Wednesday. A glut of games like this occurs every now and then when there is time set aside for the domestic cups, and also for some of the elite teams when the Champions League holds mid-week matches with the domestic leagues running over the weekend. As you can imagine, this can lead to some exhausted soccer players and therefore some difficult decisions for managers as they have to weigh the various competitions carefully and choose where to spend their talent. With the Carling Cup nearing the final match, the FA Cup kicking into high gear, and the Premier League entering an important stretch, I'd like to go over the various trophies that can be won and give some analysis about how Arsenal might use their players in each.

The most prestigious trophy to win is most definitely the Champions League. This is the tournament that pits all of the best teams in Europe against each other to see who will come out as champion. For the record, I prefer the World Cup due to the amazing amounts of pageantry and meaning that go into every match no matter how small and seemingly inconsequential. The World Cup isn't club against club but country against country in a tournament that comes around only once in every four years, meaning that even superstar players only have so many chances to win. It is, in my opinion, the biggest prize in all of sports and it's a fantastic event. However, the Champions League is by far the best play that you will see as it features teams that have been training together all year and are much more comfortable than the international players that get together only every so often to defend the honor of their country. I'm not going to go through the multi-step tournament system (though if you have any questions, please post them in the comments), but Arsenal are currently still alive and will be playing traditional powerhouse AC Milan in the first round of the knockout stages.

The other title that everyone dreams of winning is the domestic league title. This trophy goes to the team who comes in first in whichever league they play in (English Premier League, Italian Serie A, Spanish La Liga, etc.) and is not determined by a tournament. If you finish in first place in the regular season, you win the league title, which is why so much attention is paid to each and every game. There is no "we'll get in the playoffs and see what happens." It all comes down to the regular season. Think of it as similar to college basketball. Coupled with the various league cups (which I will get to shortly), you have an atmosphere somewhat similar to the regular season champion and the tournament champion, with the NCAA tournament acting as the Champions League. While the league cups are important, the league titles are the full year grind that everyone plays through and league standings also ultimately determine who will be relegated and promoted when all is said and done. Due to this, the domestic titles are second in prestige to the Champions League, though this isn't true for every European league and some fans of each league. Perhaps the way to say it is that the domestic titles are the second hardest to win. Currently Arsenal sits in 7th place in the Premier League with 37 points (out of 20 teams; leaders Manchester City have 54 points).

The aforementioned league cups are next on the difficulty/prestige scale, though this is a little difficult to explain. In England, there are two knockout style tournaments for multiple levels of soccer teams: the FA Cup and the Carling Cup. The difference here is one of scope. The Carling Cup includes the Premier League as well as the next three divisions of the Football League (Championship, League 1, League 2). The FA Cup includes all of those teams as well as teams from the National League System, which means that there are village squads competing at the early stages of the tournament. The Carling Cup consistently contains 72 teams due to the set nature of the Football League. Last year's FA Cup had 763 teams participate when all was said and done. You might think that due to the more elite nature of the Carling Cup it is the more prestigious tournament, but this isn't true. The FA Cup is the oldest association soccer competition in the world and the wide open, Cinderella nature of the tournament makes it fascinating to watch. The FA Cup is a tournament that teams set out to win to bring glory to their fans. The Carling Cup is somewhat of an also-ran tournament that teams often use their secondary players or young up-and-comers for rather than exhaust their true stars further. Arsenal was knocked out of the Carling Cup by Manchester City in the quarterfinals but is still alive in the FA Cup after beating Aston Villa 3-2 on Sunday. Which brings us to where we are now.

Arsenal is still alive in three out of four trophy races, but the level to which they are breathing vs gasping for air is highly debatable. Realistically, the race for the Premier League title is over for the Gunners. 17 points is a huge difference to overcome and they would have to leapfrog five other teams besides the current leaders to get there. Put more in American sports terms, they are 5.66 games out with 15 games to play and have six teams in front of them. It's technically possible, sure, but very unlikely, especially if we were to compare the relative talent levels. Therefore, the more achievable goal is 4th place, currently held by Chelsea with 42 points (5 points ahead of Arsenal). Why does 4th place matter? The top three finishers in the Premier League get automatic bids into the Champions League group stage while the fourth place finisher has to play a home-and-away playoff to reach the same level. In other words, fourth place is the last chance for a team to get into next year's Champions League and usually fourth place in England is going to be a large favorite over whoever they would face in the playoff. So, Arsenal's Premier League hopes are more about battling into fourth place (or higher of course, but that's less likely as third place is currently occupied by Tottenham with 49 points) in order to make the 2012-2013 Champions League than challenging for the title.

In this year's Champion's League, Arsenal faces a tough elimination round match against defending Italian champions AC Milan. This is a winnable tie (term for two match knockout series) for the Gunners, but definitely difficult as Milan is a dangerous team. Still, it would not be unheard of for Arsenal to go to the San Siro and play Milan close, then come back to London and close things out to advance to the quarterfinals. The problem is, then what? There are four teams still in the Champions League who are absolutely better than Arsenal (Inter Milan, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barcelona) and unless they all get knocked out in the round of 16 or face each other in the quarterfinals on the opposite side of the draw from Arsenal, the Gunners will have to play one of them soon. They would be very lucky if that didn't happen until the semifinals and once it does happen, it's all over. What I said before is very true: the Champions League is the title that you want to win. It's the one you will always fight for if you're in it. But if you realistically have no chance of winning, it's not great to get your hopes up too high.

The FA Cup is a very interesting story for Arsenal mostly due to the fallout from the earlier rounds. Manchester City and Manchester United (the #1 and #2 teams in England right now) have been eliminated, leaving a wide open field for the Round of 16 and beyond. With each game being an elimination match, it would be possible for Arsenal to get lucky with their draws and advance through the next level or two easily, and the worst they could draw would be their arch-rival from Tottenham, a match you still have to like Arsenal to put up a good fight in at the very least. Because of this, Alan Davies of the excellent (but often profane and almost exclusively for Gunners fans rather than general soccer fans) podcast The Tuesday Club recommended giving up on the other competitions and making damn sure that Arsenal brought back the FA Cup as a major trophy this year. Personally... I don't know. Arsenal has the best shot for the FA Cup, that's for sure, as they aren't going to be winning the Premier League or Champions League this year. And if they saved their players for this tournament and caught some of the other teams more tired or unprepared, they would have a good chance. However, I just can't justify giving up on going for 4th place when the Gunners are only five points back, and as a matter of pride I wouldn't be able to sit stars in the Champions League, even though Real and Barca will be hoisting the trophy this year. But then, is that really an answer? Play all of your players in all of your matches and come up half-assed in everything? I don't know. The 5th round of the FA Cup doesn't start until the middle of February and by then, Arsenal will have a better idea of where they stand in the Premier League as well as how the first leg of their tie against AC Milan went, so this is most likely where Arsene Wenger will make his decision. If they are keeping pace, expect a diminished squad to show up for the FA Cup match. But if they dump Premier League games to Blackburn and Sunderland, and get run out of the San Siro 3-1, well, expect a lot of depressed Arsenal fans cheering for FA Cup success. It would be the only success we see all year.


Game Notes

-The game on Sunday vs Aston Villa had all the makings of a classic Arsenal match where they play as the better team but can't put the ball in the back of the net, then see the opponent score against the run of play to doom them in the end. Only in this case, the Gunners managed to come back once all of that happened. It was a new twist on an old classic, but it was nice to see some fight from the team. I'm not sure what Arsene Wenger said in the dressing room at halftime, but it worked. Arsenal came roaring out and showed some true heart in battling back to win the game in regulation and keep from having to go to Aston Villa for a replay match that would just tire them out further.

-Of course, Arsenal's comeback wouldn't have been possible without a few ghastly mistakes by Aston Villa. It's a shame to a degree as Villa defended well most of the game and did a good job frustrating Arsenal before turning up the heat on breakouts. Arsenal threatened consistently, but the Villans always seemed to poke the ball away at the last moment, intercept that last pass to keep the real chances from coming. However, they were undone by two poor decisions in their own penalty box that led to converted penalty kicks by Van Persie. As well as they played cohesive team defense, Aston Villa gave this game away by making terrible decisions in just a couple of big spots.

-Both Mikel Arteta and Bacary Sagna came into this match as substitutes, which is a glimmer of hope for struggling Arsenal fans. Before, I hadn't been overly impressed with the play of Arteta this year as he just seemed to be holding the ball and making easy passes. Nothing incisive and nothing that creative. But when he missed several games with injury, his value showed as the Gunners couldn't even hold possession much less control the game in midfield. Sagna's return marked a return to the time when Arsenal wasn't forced to play defenders out of position on the right and that will be incredibly important going forward as the flanks finally open up again. Great to see both players back. As Always, Go Gunners.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

They Are Who We Thought They Were

Denny Green has become "internet famous" for his rant during a postgame conference in which he shouted about the Chicago Bears "they are who we thought they were." Now commonly quoted and referenced, this classic flip out seems like an odd tautology at first, the "it is what it is" of angry reactions to the football media. But taken out of the context of one-liners and snarky commentary, the phrase is surprisingly insightful - at least as far as what you'll get out of a coach during a press conference after his team just gave away a game. Too many times sportswriters, be they professional or amateur, make too much out of what ifs and potential and dream scenarios that they don't realize they already have a pretty clear picture in front of them that shows how good a player or team is in reality. It's called "the past" and it's a surprisingly good determining factor in "the future." Now, there are of course exceptions. The New York Giants came out of absolutely nowhere to make the Super Bowl this year and as late as week 16 people (myself included) were calling them frauds or disappointments, depending on your expectations and perception. But then there are the wealth of other examples that suggest that what you see is what you get. You can keep waiting for Dustin Penner to live up to his potential, but perhaps he's just a lazy player who is never going to blossom. You can keep waiting for Albert Haynesworth to find the right coach to motivate him, but maybe he's an arrogant head case. And you can keep waiting for this Arsenal team to do more than we think they can, but it's possible that they are who we thought they were.

Coming into the match against Manchester United, everyone knew a couple of very important things about Arsenal, themes that had either lingered from the beginning of the season or had become of vital importance in the recent part of the campaign. An obvious example of the latter is the staggering lack of depth among Arsenal's fullbacks due to injury problems. Not only have the Gunners lost their first choice left and right fulls (Andre Santos and Bacary Sagna respectively) but they've also lost the back-ups Kieran Gibbs and Carl Jenkinson. With so many of the players out on the wings, Arsene Wenger has been forced to move around their normal central defenders (using Thomas Vermaelen on the left or Laurent Koscielny on the right), rely on veterans who would otherwise be sitting on the bench (Johan Djourou), or give an inordinate amount of playing time to an out of position youngster (Ignasi Miquel). The question prior to Sunday's match was "can the Arsenal defense hold up against the Man U attack?" Are we that surprised that the answer is "no?" Shouldn't all of the injuries and all of the obvious problems be a sign that things were going to go wrong? I love Vermaelen to death, but he's not used to playing on the left and he lost Antonio Valencia on the first goal of the match. Djourou played so bad that he was subbed at halftime for an 18 year-old making his first Premier League appearance. And the second Man U goal, well...

How often on this very website have you seen me make bald pleas to Arsene Wenger to never play Andrei Arshavin again? I'm not a renegade in this of course as nearly every Arsenal fan I've heard speak their mind says the same thing, but the track record is there. He has been garbage in pretty much every game he's played in this year. The worst thing is that he not only disappears for long stretches of time, but he sucks the life out of attacks for other players as well, putting in poor passes or taking bad touches when given good passes. It was such a relief to see Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain finally get the start over Arshavin because of the quality that Chamberlain had brought to every game that he'd played in so far this year regardless of the level. But in the 74th minute Wenger subbed Chamberlain out (apparently because he was nursing a calf injury? - the truth in the matter is uncertain, though I hope Wenger has earned the right to not be called a liar) and Arshavin came trotting in. Were people really thinking that this was going to be the game that he turned everything around and started playing like the man who was instant offense two seasons ago? Are we really surprised that wasn't the case? Arshavin was badly burned by Valencia who proceeded to set up Danny Welbeck for the game winning goal, to the surprise to absolutely no one who had watched a game so far this year.

The run of form that Robin Van Persie has enjoyed this season has been nothing short of remarkable, but it's not all high fives and smiles when discussing Arsenal's attacking options. I've mentioned time and time again that while Van Persie is playing brilliantly, the scoring isn't coming from anywhere else. The Dutch international has scored 19 out the team's 39 goals on the season. Gervinho (currently away from the team due to the African Cup of Nations) is currently in second with four. Knowing how the season has gone so far did anyone truly expect another player besides Van Persie to kick start the offense in Sunday's match? Wenger threw a slight curveball at fans by starting Chamberlain, who was the second best offensive player on the field for Arsenal and really did add something to the game. But even with that, Van Persie scored the Gunners only goal and had the next best chance as well, which he inexplicably put wide. Theo Walcott was ok, Aaron Ramsey was ok, and no one else really chipped in that much. In another words, it was another Arsenal match.

I don't want to seem too down after this match as there were some good spots. Arsenal were the better team for significant stretches in the second half, which is good to see when you're playing against the number two team in the league. Chamberlain looked fantastic and it will be great to see him get more play coming up. When Gervinho comes back to the squad, Arteta gets healthy again, and Wilshere makes his triumphant return, the midfield has a strong chance of being really good. But even with those bright sides, this was still a 2-1 loss at home in a game that Arsenal desperately needed. As it sits now, they are 5 points behind Chelsea and even though they will host that fixture later in the season, it's now even more of a must win, a game that very well could end the Gunners' season if it goes poorly. This was a disappointing loss to take, but, and I hate to say this, it should not have been surprising.

No game notes on this one as I find that I've said all I need to say by touching on the three biggest issues in the main body of the post. See everyone back after the FA Cup match against Aston Villa and As Always, Go Gunners.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Regression to the Mean, Or to the Past?

Earlier in the year I took great pains to highlight the ways in which this year's Arsenal team were very different from the squads over the last couple of years who failed to live up to fans' expectations, not just in terms of wins but in terms of character. Players from previous Gunners teams were often accused of being too soft, of not having the heart to win games, of possessing a preoccupation with playing the way they wanted to play regardless of what the game was dictating. This often led to frustrating results where Arsenal would never truly participate in a match, waiting for the result to roll in their favor rather than expending the full effort to make certain that the win or difficult draw would be theirs. Back when this year's team was clawing and scratching their way back from a brutal start to the season, I made the case that the athletes now playing for the team no longer had that luxury due to no longer having an obvious talent gap, that they were doing everything they could to win because the points were so desperately needed and nothing could be taken for granted. I still believe that character and determination exists in the Gunners this year. However, Sunday's match against Swansea can be taken as a maddening return to the entitled play of prior years.

Before we go any further, let credit be given to Swansea City, as it absolutely should be. This isn't about a pampered Arsenal team that didn't do their job to beat the newly promoted Welsh-based side because that wouldn't be fair to the effort that Swansea put forward. Their strikers pressured high up the field, keeping the Gunners from moving the ball forward confidently. The midfielders didn't give Alex Song, Yossi Benayoun, or Aaron Ramsey time on the ball and forced them into numerous turnovers. And while the defense was not dominant, they did what was needed to keep Arsenal from passing around the box and creating open runners and clear shots. We need to praise this team because they out possessed Arsenal and they did many things the Gunners couldn't do, such as counter incisively and harass their opponents into mistakes that were then used to open up the defense. So, well done Swansea.

However, this is an Arsenal blog and at the end of the day, we are here to discuss the Gunners' play as well as their temperament, and frankly both were lacking at the end of the day. It starts with the play of the midfield as this was where the game was won. Up until this point, I had never considered the degree to which Arsenal needed Mikel Arteta to be on the field. Looking back on previous games, he has never been a dynamic force, a player capable of turning games by himself or completing a set of tic-tac-toe passes that propelled the Gunners forward. Nor has he ever been the best player on the field in a given match, overall or for Arsenal. But perhaps I (or we) were focusing on the wrong aspects of the game. Arteta is important because of the shape that he imposes on the field. He is a player that, when pressured, can cut to his right, turn his shoulder back to the left, and manipulate his defender into giving up just enough space for the proper pass to be made. We see this in basketball all the time, with attackers that are adept at using simple arm motions, ball fakes, or step-ins to create the chances they need, either to get off shots or find the passing lane. This is how Barcelona plays as well, although admittedly at a much higher level than Arteta or any other Arsenal player. Xavi especially has the ability to turn in a three-by-three box and suddenly find space going forward because of the position he has put the defender in. Arteta has a lesser form of this ability, as does Jack Wilshere. The problem is, neither of those players were on the field against Swansea and once you get past them, there is no one else that can consistently possess the ball and create openings utilizing simple delaying tactics. I thought Aaron Ramsey would have grown into that role, but he hasn't, more often going completely backward or easily giving away the ball instead. Long had I thought that the Arsenal midfield was the strength of their team, but the play up the middle on Sunday proved otherwise.

The problems go beyond the technical skill in the middle though. During this match the Gunners looked like they thought they were better than Swansea, like they expected to gain a result without having to fight for one against a team that came to the park ready to fight themselves. As tough as Alex Song can be in the middle of the field, he doesn't appear to be someone that the team rallies around when he fully commits himself, nor did he fully commit himself in this match. Early in the year, Robin Van Persie was that lightning rod, but although he scored the first goal in this game, he didn't have enough of an impact to change the momentum when things were going decidedly against Arsenal. It is possible that this was due to a lack of service as none of the other Gunners did anything to get him into the play and give him the chances he needed. But some of that blame can go to Van Persie as well because he is the captain of this team and therefore he is the man that needs to set a tone for the rest of his players. What you saw on Sunday looked more like a group of players trying to just show up and win rather than earn what was coming to them. Or perhaps they did just the latter in a more negative way.

To a degree, this analysis will be flawed from the get-go. It is trying to make psychological assumptions, broad ones, about a team that was only observed playing once on a soccer field. No thought bubbles were sprouting from their heads, nor was there any commentary after the fact that showed a sense of entitlement or a lackadaisical attitude. If anything there was the opposite, with Thierry Henry responding angrily to fans who accused the team of having no heart or commitment. Perhaps the veteran's response will serve them well going forward. And perhaps there really is no fire underneath this smoke. It is possible that this was a one time thing, where an Arsenal squad, fresh off of an emotional return for Henry but not terribly fresh in many other ways, simply ran into a team playing fantastic soccer that wanted it more in their home stadium. But unfortunately, try as we might, we cannot divorce ourselves from recent history. By objective assessments, this was a step back for a Gunners team that has shown that grit and determination over the course of this season. Let us hope that it is a momentary lapse rather than a change in attitude. As Always, Go Gunners.


Game Notes

-Though I ran through many of the players' mistakes or responsibilities, some of the blame has to land at the feet of Arsene Wenger. Teams, especially young teams, often find themselves taking on the personality of their coach. We are seeing that right now with the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL who are playing all out and passionately for a coach that gives his all and is passionate about football. To what extent do we turn our psychiatric analysis on Wenger then? He has what he wants in a youthful team loaded with ability and upside, as well as key leaders (Arteta and Van Persie being the foremost) who can lead them along. If this team does collapse again, or fail to demonstrate the mental fortitude necessary to make it through a Premier League season while simultaneously competing for the FA Cup and attempting to progress in Champions League, we need to look at all aspects of this team.

-Along these lines, it may be right to question the tactics that Wenger has been using. Thus far this year, Theo Walcott has played well, but has lacked the consistency necessary to make him a truly vital player. If he has the capacity to disappear for stretches of the game on the right side, especially without Bacary Sagna to provide the necessary service and over-lapping runs that help to create space, why not move Walcott to the middle and take over Ramsey's position? Ramsey has not shown that he deserves that lineup spot week in and week out yet, so why not make him fight for it? Walcott has improved his finishing but is still weak with his crosses, so perhaps his speed will help him link up with Van Persie and provide the Dutchman with more space for his own opportunities. Not to mention that this will free up the right wing spot for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who has impressed in each game he's played at every level. One loss doesn't mean the world is falling, but after the lackluster efforts over the packed holiday season as well as this dispiriting away match, some tinkering may be necessary.

-The Swansea match is another example of a theme I highlighted earlier in the year, namely that teams are learning to pressure Arsenal high up the field. It was a tactic most notably used by Olympiakos and Borussia Dortmund during Champions League matches, but it will continue unless the Gunners find a way to neutralize it. Arteta is instrumental in this without question, but the wingers need to make themselves available to receive as well as make passes, and Alex Song must do a better job of playing safe passes out of danger and then turning upfield. Too often does Song try to make plays on his own when the opponent is still lurking in dangerous positions, and when he does this he often strands his deep midfield partner (usually Arteta) in a bad spot where defensive talent is required. I believe that when healthy, Jack Wilshere has the talent to both pull strings on offense as well as play defensively when forced to. But until he is back, Song needs to temper his creativity (which at times can be wonderful to watch) with the knowledge that he is needed as the defensive link between the midfielders and fullbacks.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

First Half Wrap-Up

Welcome back everyone. I took a long hiatus during the holidays, not so much because I was too lazy to write but because I simply did not have a chance to watch any of the Arsenal matches, either due to a lack of television coverage or because of travel. As it turns out, however, the matches were the kind that deserve a miss. The Gunners couldn't manage better than a 1-1 draw at home against 10-man Wolverhampton, played a tight 1-0 match home to Queens Park Rangers, and then lost to 2011-2012 arch rivals Fulham in heart-breaking fashion as the "other" London side put in two goals in the last 10 minutes when Arsenal was reduced to 10 men themselves. Though only 4 of 9 points were taken from those very winnable matches, let us wash our hands of that and turn our attention to the new year, with Arsenal only one point out of the final Champions League spot. But before we get to immensely important matches (hosting Manchester United on January 22nd!), me actually being able to watch the upcoming games (hopefully), and the second half of this exciting Premier League season, let's look back on the first half of the season and assign some halftime awards. In each category, I will be making a decision both for Arsenal and for the Premier League as a whole, in an attempt both to cater to the purpose of this blog and engage in a larger conversation about the league in which the Gunners play. Let us begin!

Best Player

Arsenal: Robin Van Persie

I use "best player" here rather than "most valuable player" due to continued debate over what the MVP award is actually supposed to represent (don't make me rehash "Tiki Barber over Sean Alexander" arguments from 2005 - I swear to God I'll do it), although in this case the distinction is irrelevant. Robin Van Persie has been as dynamic as anyone in the Premier League, leading the league in goals with 17, picking up 5 assists along the way, and being about as important to his team as anyone could possibly be. What do I mean? Van Persie has just shy of half his team's goals, with Gervinho comes in second tallying four. Van Persie has eight game winners so far this year. And all of these numbers are in the Premier League alone, not Champions League where he adds another four scores including a game winner. I am aware that the italics got a little out of control there, but they seem to be necessary to showcase the man's accomplishments. Arsenal would not be in contention without the Dutch international and I find it quite likely that they wouldn't have scored at all yet this season. Robin Van Persie is the obvious choice for Arsenal's best player so far this year. Honorable Mentions: Wojciech Szczesny, Alex Song

Premier League: Robin Van Persie

Cry homer pick all you want, but I see no way in which Van Persie wouldn't be the odds on choice for any non-Arsenal fans as well (even you, Spurs supporters). The key is that it's not that the Gunners captain is running up his stats with garbage time goals; his team has needed him and he rose to the occasion when they were at their most desperate. As I said above, just shy of half of his goals are game winners, and not just against new additions Queens Park Rangers and Norwich City, but Premier League giants like Chelsea and perennial top half teams Everton and Stoke City. I do not discount impressive campaigns from other players, but this has been Van Persie's season thus far. Honorable Mentions: David Silva, Demba Ba


Most Disappointing Player

Arsenal: Andrei Arshavin

I chose this category rather than a simple "worst player" because I think we'd rather talk about potential contributors instead of whoever is in the 18th spot on the bench. With that said, Andrei Arshavin wins a tight race because of how much Arsenal needs him to fulfill the role of the steady veteran off the bench or to spell starters, and he has been utterly miserable when called upon. When playing their full squad, Arsenal has a very competitive lineup that should be good enough to get them to that final Champions League spot, or at least remain in contention all season. But a team can't spend an entire year as a contender if they cannot afford to rest their starters. The season is too long and there are too many different titles to chase for the same eleven players to run around on the field each day for ninety minutes. Arshavin needs to provide that rest, but also that spark off the bench to add instant offense when Arsenal needs a goal from an important match. Instead, he comes onto the field and promptly disappears. It's not just his solitary goal and single assist on the year either; it's the fact that he detracts from the Gunners flow rather than add to it, often putting in poor crosses, losing control of passes, or skying ill-advised shots from distance. Arshavin is notoriously streaky in his play, but at 30 years old, this may be more than a bad run. This may be who he is now, and Arsene Wenger would do well to realize this and give other more mentally sound players a chance. Honorable Mentions: Marouane Chamakh, Tomas Rosicky

Premier League: Andy Carroll

It's become en vogue to mock Andy Carroll (especially if you are a Men in Blazers listener), but it's hard to say that it's not deserved. Carroll was one of the big signings last year for Liverpool, as he and Luis Suarez were brought in to revamp the attack in the wake of Fernando Torres' huge move to Chelsea. But while Suarez has been in exceptional form (racist verbal sparring with Patrice Evra notwithstanding) Carroll has done fuck all in his first full season in Merseyside. The £35 million signing has a total of two goals and worse, there is no sign of a turnaround. Early in the season, there was plenty of talk about "this is just a slow start, he just needs to get his feet." Now the discussion has turned to a debate about whether he should ever start again for Liverpool. While the latter talk is perhaps a bit dramatic, there is nothing to suggest that this is just a rough patch for Carroll with his "true" form just around the corner. Things could click for him. After all, he is only 23 and perhaps some confidence is all that is needed. But if that doesn't come, what are Liverpool to do? Would a club pay even £10 million for him at this point? The second half of the season will not only be about Carroll's ability to keep Liverpool in the hunt for a Champions League spot, but also his ability to preserve his image as an in-demand talent. Honorable Mentions: Charles N'Zogbia, Samir Nasri (I swear that's objective)


Most Interesting Storyline

Arsenal: The Fall, The Rise

It's a common sports cliche to describe a team's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde performance as "a tale of two seasons," but that isn't quite right for this Arsenal squad. Though they were as equally good and bad as that description might suggest, it was more about surviving the first month of the season and then the dramatic recovery that had people saying "wait, maybe Arsenal aren't dead in the water."

Let's be honest: the beginning of the season was awful. Not so much in terms of the quality of play, but in the multiple converging storms that turned into a full on Shakespearean tempest. First was the dual transfer sagas of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri, clouds hanging over the head of Arsenal that not only kept quality players off the field, but also kept Arsenal from moving forward with the business of replacing them and having a full squad. Then it was the injuries, starting the season without Thomas Vermaelen and Jack Wilshere, an issue that was compounded by the suspensions to Alex Song, Gervinho, and Emmanuel Frimpong during the early games. With all of the players missing for various reasons, the first few weekends of the season were a disaster, only mitigated by the playoff win over Udinese to make it into the Champions League group stage.

But then, miraculously, the team began to rise, and for as many reasons as there were problems at the beginning of August. For one, the team actually became whole. Song and Gervinho came back after serving their three game suspensions, but the most important factor was when Arsene Wenger finally completed his transfer acquisitions, signing Mikel Arteta, Per Mertesacker, and Andre Santos. There were other signings like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Yossi Benayoun, but the aforementioned trio were the most important in the early stages because they solidified the starting eleven that Wenger would roll out every game. Mertesacker gave a Laurent Koscielny a legitimate defensive partner, Santos provided the attacking threat down the left flank, and Arteta supplied the creativity in midfield needed to possess the ball and direct the game. Slowly, Arsenal started winning, mostly on the foot of Robin Van Persie, and now find themselves one point out of fourth place when many pundits wrote them off at the beginning of September.

Arsenal still has their issues. They are absolutely decimated in the back, with injuries to no less than six fullbacks, but for now the line is holding. The transfer window gives them a chance to shore up that area, but they also are in desperate need of a back-up or strike partner for Robin Van Persie. The arrival of Thierry Henry has been a fairy tale thus far, but he was playing in MLS for a reason. He's not a cure-all, though he may be an acceptable placeholder, but the real issue is getting someone in for the future as well as the band aid for the present. If such a player is not available during the transfer window, then that's understandable. But if Wenger doesn't push hard to make an impact signing, it will be a failure on his part.

Will Arsenal feel the effect of dropping so many points in the early season? Most definitely. Conservatively speaking, the Gunners would be four points up on Chelsea and within striking distance of Tottenham if they had just played ok rather than miserable in August. But even with the slow start, Arsenal is in the position to make a run at the Champions League. If they can't seriously pressure the subjects of our Premier League storyline, a spot in Europe in 2012 would still be a fantastic result considering how the season started. Honorable Mentions: Van Persie's Brilliance, The Rise of Wojciech Szczesny

Premier League: Battle For Manchester

Early in the year, all anyone could talk about was how excellent Manchester United was and how the title was theirs to lose this year. There were rumblings about how Manchester City were looking good and starting to come together, but the focus was assuredly on United. That is until the massacre at Old Trafford, when City dismantled the champions-elect 6-1 and sent everyone into a tizzy about how the little brother of the city might have the talent to finish the season unbeaten. Now that the dust has settled, the pundits have taken their Xanax, and the hyperbole levels have fallen, it is generally assumed that the race for the Premier League title is a race for supremacy in Manchester itself (unless you enjoy being avant-garde and throw Tottenham in as a dark horse candidate).

The success of United shouldn't surprise anyone since they are a constant force at the top of the table and last year's champions. However, City's rise to dominance took more than a few by surprise. Most experts pegged them as too talented to not make the top four, but there was far from a consensus regarding their title hopes. This was a team that received the gift of Arsenal's collapse and snuck into third place while playing a particularly dour brand of soccer. "Boring boring City" is a popular chant for a reason. But this year the creative floodgates have opened and not only are City winning now, but they are doing it impressively and with flair. They are solid in the back and Roberto Mancini can still put Nigel de Jong in midfield for some steel, but they are best when incessantly attacking the net. David Silva has been a revelation this season and if it wasn't for the form of Robin Van Persie, he would be the odds-on favorite for player of the year (and some people still believe that he is despite Van Persie's season thus far). Though Gael Clichy and Samir Nasri haven't quite worked out as expected, City has found transfer success with Sergio Aguero, who is currently third in the league with 14 goals. With their wealth of options up front and the many different ways they can format their midfield, City look poised to be a contender to the end.

As it stands now, City has a three point lead on United, with Tottenham six points back of City but with a sneaky game in hand, making them perhaps more than just the sexy choice of the more hisptery of pundits. City has the money to make a splash in the transfer market so despite being a little thin now with injuries, they should be your favorites to stand on top in the end. However, they are not that experienced with "squeaky bum time" (thank you Sir Alex Ferguson for that one) and if they slip up on some of the easier fixtures or don't get up for the big matches, it could leave the door open for United and Spurs as well. My pick would be City, but not much would surprise me at this point. Honorable Mentions: Tottenham's Beautiful Football, Norwich City's Newcomer Success


Best Coach

Arsenal: Arsene Wenger (WHAT?!?)

These last two are categories where there are no choices for the Arsenal awards, but I'd like to use the Arsenal sections to discuss issues close to Gunners fans' hearts and then move on to the broader picture. In the case of Arsene Wenger, I find it hard to fault his coaching this year. I have my more minor complaints (don't play Andrei Arshavin or Kieran Gibbs in an important game ever again, at least have Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain on the bench for Christ's sake, see how Theo Walcott would do if partnered with Robin Van Persie up top, etc.), but in general Wenger's method this year has been flawless. He never panicked when the team was at their worst and he got the most of his previously uninspiring captain to pick them out of it. Then once his team was set, he did the only thing he could: field essentially the same team game after game knowing that it was the only way for them to get used to playing with each other and to make up the points that he needed to. We might be seeing the effects of that a little now with the injuries and dropped points over the holidays, but look where things stand. At the beginning of the season, people were calling for his head. Now Arsenal is into the fourth round of the FA Cup, sitting a point out of fourth place in the Premier League, and already locked up first place in their Champions League group with one game to spare. It's very hard to argue with that.

What is much easier to argue with is Wenger's spending strategy during the transfer window. I respect that Arsenal doesn't have oil money and they balance their books better than any other top tier team, I really do. But there comes a time when you simply need talent above bargains and youth. Arsenal was linked to so many quality players during the summer transfer window, from Juan Mata, to Keisuke Honda, to Chris Samba, and locked down exactly zero of those big names. Don't get me wrong, Andre Santos was a nice pick-up until he went down injured and Mikel Arteta has done a good job controlling the game from his deep position in the midfield. But I would take Samba in a second over Per Mertesacker and I salivate at the thought of Mata in the Gunners' midfield, even at the expense of Arteta. Wenger has built his team well and relatively inexpensively compared to the deep pockets of Manchester City among others, but sometimes you need to make the big move. If Arsenal can knock off AC Milan to get to the quarterfinals of Champions League and qualify for European play next year as well, critics will have to keep their mouths shut regarding Wenger. But if Arsenal falls off the pace and misses out on that Champions League glory and money, expect a lot of people to point at his inability to pull the trigger to get the players he truly wanted. Honorable Mention: Arsene Wenger, Arsene Wenger

Premier League: Harry Redknapp

I know, I know, I didn't want to give credit to anyone from Spurs, let alone the orchestrator of the whole circus. But dammit, Harry Redknapp has his team playing the most attractive brand of soccer in England and they really are a delight to watch. Moreover, he's done it without the financial resources of the super rich clubs like Manchester City and Chelsea, or the sheer drawing power of an also-rich club like Manchester United. The signing of Scott Parker has proven to be absolute genius, as is the acquisition of Emmanuel Adebayor on loan. Between the brilliant personnel moves and the tactic-less tactics (to hear Redknapp talk about it at least), this has been the Spurs' manager's year thus far, even in the face of Roberto Mancini's handling of Mario Balotelli and the style of football he has his team playing at the moment. Harry, I will always root against you, but at least in this you have my respect. Honorable Mention: Roberto Mancini, Alan Pardew


Best Team

Arsenal: Arsenal

Well, it's been a pretty crazy year so far. I hope anyone reading at the beginning of the season took my advice about making it through the bad start because it's been a good ride since then. I've gone over the ebbs and flows of the season and a lot of the main issues, but here are a couple of quick hitters to send you off on.

-Aaron Ramsey needs to play better. He didn't make my "most disappointing" nominees, but he came very close. I think it's because I have high expectations for him, but I still think they are reasonable. Consider this: when this season have you thought to yourself "Aaron Ramsey was Arsenal's best player today" after a match? Save the Marseille goal, when has he truly stepped up to the plate? Now think about how many good chances he's missed wide, or how many shots from distance have curved far away from the goal, or how many times he's dribbled all the way back to midfield rather than pass around pressure. Get what I'm saying? I feel like he should be a staple of the side by now, but in reality he's on the chopping block for when Jack Wilshere comes back. The Gunners need a better second half from him.

-The return of the injured. Last I saw, Andre Santos won't be back until March, but Jack Wilshere and Bacary Sanga could be back by early February. As these important players come back, as the depth returns a little bit (especially at fullback), we might start to see Arsenal make more of a push as they will have a chance to rest starters more and more, while still putting forward quality players. Plus the chance to see Wilshere back is worth the wait by itself, so here's hoping everyone progresses as expected.

-Gervinho for Chamberlain? Of course as players come back from injury, other players are leaving, with Gervinho and Marouane Chamakh playing for their countries in the African Cup of Nations. Now, I couldn't care less about Chamakh leaving. One of those inflatable arm flailing tube men would have more scoring instinct than the Moroccan. But losing Gervinho hurts as he brings so much speed and menace to the left side of the field. Fortunately, this will give Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the chance to get some real big boy minutes for the Gunners and I couldn't be happier about that. Chamberlain is a real talent and he seems ready to burst onto the scene, so I only hope that this period of increased play follows the script. I mentioned earlier that Arteta, Song, and Mertesacker were the essential transfer signings in the short term because they helped to stabilize the team, but Chamberlain may be the real success story long term if he can continue his trajectory.

-The Henry Experiment. I don't know if the loan of Thierry Henry is going to be the move that gets Arsenal over the hump and into the Champions League places for next year, but it's a great story regardless. It already started in dramatic fashion when he came on as a substitute in the FA Cup match against Leeds United and scored the game-winning goal ten minutes later, so who knows how far it can go? I have my doubts about the 34 year-old's quality considering he was on his retirement tour in MLS previously, but if he can contribute, then he can contribute. Either way, it should be fun to watch.

Premier League: Manchester City

This one wasn't hard to see coming, but it doesn't make it any less true. I already broke down what I feel are the key components to Manchester City's rise back in the storylines section, but there is always more to talk about. Let me just say this: Samir Nasri. Edin Dzeko. Adam Johnson. James Milner. Nigel De Jong. These are players that have routinely come off of City's bench this year, switching out starts or just acting as tactical substitutes. This is the depth of talent that Roberto Mancini has at his disposal and that is frightening to consider, especially for all of the critics who say that City will inevitably burn out. Now, they do have injury problems right now which is why Mancini has been not so subtly discussing his squad's depth while the transfer window is open. But between the money City can raise by sending unused players out on loan and the money that seems to pour out of their pockets whenever a talented player is mentioned to be looking for a new team, they should be able to pull in some important players before the end of January. We will have to reassess things after February begins because the landscape could be quite different once all the players have landed in their new locations, but I stand by my earlier pick of City to stay in control of the league. I would rather it be Arsenal, but if I'm choosing between City, Manchester United, and Tottenham, I guess I'll have to root for powder blue.

This season has been crazy so far and is liable to get even more ridiculous going forward. As long as the television scheduling is merciful, you will see a lot more posts from me over the course of the rest of the campaign. Thank you for reading and As Always, Go Gunners.